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Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review for the last 24 hours, 15 Mar 22.
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GMRD - Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MANPAD – man-protable air defence system
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division
PGM – precision guided munition
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UAF – Ukrainian armed Forces
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
Oleg Matveychev, member of the Russian Duma who often speaks on behalf of top government officials, appeared on the Russian State TV yesterday, to demand the USA to return Alaska and 'pay reparations' for the last 200 or so years.
...is perfectly fine with me: send him to lead an invasion for Alaska, if he wants it back so hard....
In the real world: generally, the RFA seems to be busy hauling whatever reinforcements it can find to the frontlines in Ukraine, and replacing mauled units of its 1st echelon with fresh units of the 2nd. Transit of additional units from Armenia and Far East is in the process, and the first 400 Assadist combatants have arrived in Russia. Reportedly, another 1,000 are about to follow. I have my doubts about Assad’s ability to really send 16,000, but if Putin – or, and more likely: the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran (IRGC) or the United Arab Emirates – pay, he’s going to send his grandma, too.
In the coming days, think the following is going to be important: as mentioned in my earlier reviews, the Ukrainians have (‘silently’) launched a mobilisation of their ‘1st echelon of reserves’ already on Friday, 18 February. Means, by 24th, these were already in place. From memory, on that day (or, was it a day later?), Zelensky then ordered a general mobilisation, recalling the ‘2nd echelon of reserves’, too. The latest research by Adrien Fontanellaz (between others, he read himself through a 2,000-pages of a related report from 2021), this might have brought their forces to about 300,000 troops, if not more. This in turn is what drove me to the conclusion: the Russians with their troop-strength meanwhile down to less than 190,000, can’t win this war. The minimal requirement for an operation of this size and scope would have been about 250,000 – just to conquer Ukraine: holding it under control would require about 500,000 - which they are never going to reach. Thus, troops-wise, they are outmatched.
While Ukrainians are outmatched by the Russian air power and artillery, NATO’s deliveries of advanced infantry armament, and intel-support, are adding plenty of situational awareness to Ukrainian commanders, and plentiful firepower even to ‘light’ Ukrainian reservist units (see: infantry) – the mass of which has combat experience from Donbass of the last eight years. In comparison, the mass of RFA units was never ‘blooded’ before this invasion (that appears to have been a crucial reason for their massive losses, early on). Finally, the Ukrainians have the advantage of the inner line: as we’ve seen in the last few days, whenever there’s another Russian penetration of the frontlines, they usually need about 12-24 hours to bring in enough reinforcements to contain. Meanwhile, it seems they’re capable of doing this even in the south-east (not sure about the south, yet).
Above all of this, keep in mind: except in the Sievierodonetsk area, we haven’t yet seen a trace of evidence for the deployment of the units from the Ukrainian 1st echelon of reserves (for example: three armoured brigades equipped with, between others, T-72s). Means, the GenStab in Kyiv still has plentiful of fresh troops. The question is actually: where are they and why are they held back….?
AIR
The VKS lost another of its fighter-bombers – this time to the Ukrainian Buks. The video confirming this was taken from such a range, though, that an identification of the downed jet is presently impossible. Exact location remains unknown, though.
The Russians fired several dozens of ballistic missiles yesterday, most of these at targets south-east of Kharkiv, and at Mariupol.
NORTH
Yesterday, the infantry of the 35th CAA – foremost BTGs of the 5th Tank Brigade and 37th SMRB – possibly reinforced by elements of the 36th CAA, have pushed west on Lypivka and Makariv, Kopyliv and Motyzhyn, and secured Yasnohorodka, thus widening the salient west of Kyiv and cutting off the P04 road (thus, only the E95 highway out of Kyiv remains open). Ukrainian lines in the Makariv and Irpin areas held out, though. The Russians seem to be still holding their powerful 76th VDV Division back as reserve.
On the eastern side of Dnepr….well, this is now both a chaos and strong indication for what a mass of forces the RFA seems to have concentrated there. OSINT-reports are indicating the presence of elements from no less than four of its armies, including units from the 36th CAA, 41st CAA, 2nd GTA/CAA and the 1st GTA. What is certain is certain is that the 2nd GTA/CAA reached Lukashi and then the 2nd GMRD did the first useful thing in three weeks of this war, and cut off the E40 highway connecting Kyiv with Poltava, somewhere east of Boryspil. Further north, the first elements of the powerful 90th TD have reached the frontline in the Brovary area and further north (took them only three weeks to do that). Seems, the West OSK is now using BTGs of that ‘fresh’ division to replace battered elements of the 2nd GTA/CAA and the 41st CAA: i.e. ‘2nd echelon is replacing the 1st’, enabling the latter to rest and reorganise after all the losses.
NORTH-EAST
The Ukrainian garrison of the Chernihiv Nizhyn pocket is holding out, despite continuous air attacks, and is thus tying down the mass of the Russian 41st CAA (about a dozen of BTGs). Ukrainian garrisons of Shostka, Hlukhiv, and Konotop are holding out: the Russians do not have the troops necessary to assault all of them at once.
The besieged Sumy came under a new Russian attack, but this was quickly repelled, with additional RFA losses in men and vehicles. Nearby, Ukrainian garrisons of Lebedyn and Okhtyrka are holding out. All together, the three are tying down some 15-16 BTGs of the Russian 1st GTA.
Ukrainians have pushed Moreover, the Ukrainian 93rd Mech seems to have raided Velyka Pysarivka, perhaps even liberating parts of it. The battle there is still going on.
EAST
The penetration by the 144th MRD in the Izium area was contained by Urainian reinforcements. The Russians claim to have taken Barvinkove, but this is disputed by the Ukrainians. An attempt by one of 144th MRD’s BTGs to punch further south was repelled. The Ukrainians then launched a counterattack and the ruins of Izium appear to be fiercely contested.
The garrison of Sievierodonesk has repelled all the attacks by the 3rd MRD from the north and north-west, and Separatist and Russian forces of the 8th CAA from the east. But, about 20km further south, the Russians are assaulting Popasnaya, since two days.
The rest of the LOC was quiet - except in the south-east, where after securing Staromiynivka, elements of the Russian 150th MRD have punched through and took Tenerove (a village about 100km south-east of Dnipro). I'm not sure what is going on between there and Hulyaipole in south-east and Mariupol in the south: either the Ukrainians have withdrawn their 54th Mech from there, or this is holding a growing pocket....?
SOUTH
Multiple warships of the Russian Navy were reported approaching Odessa, yesterday. There’s no indication about any kind of amphibious assault as of the time this is written, though.
The remnants of the 7th VDV Division were forced to withdraw from Voznesensk to Nova Odessa, and troops of the 20th GMRD were forced to withdraw to about 50km south of Kryvyi Rih. Mikolayiv is holding out because the Russian siege remains incomplete: supplies and reinforcements are reaching the city via the Buh River. Moreover, the Ukrainians have heavily shelled the Kherson Airport again, and this time there’s clear evidence for a number of destroyed VKS helicopters (see attachment).
The frontline of the 49th CAA between Zaporozhye and Mariupol didn’t change – except in the Hulyaipole area: the Russians claim to have secured the town, the Ukrainians that they’re still fighting there.
In Mariupol….while about 150 cars with some 300 civilians were – finally – evacuated to Zaporozhye, the Ukrainian garrison seem to have counterattacked the 150th MRD in the east of the city, resulting in plenty of destroyed armour and the death of the Russian divisional-CO; Major-General Oleg Mityaev. That said, the city is meanwhile not only under constant air- and artillery strikes, but also shelled by warships of the Russian Navy.
I'm quite sure to recall Mityaev's name from the time he served in Syria, back in around 2017-2018. On the contrary, his 150th MRD was specially raised for operations in Donbass, as the centrepiece of the 1st Army Corps/8th CAA. The latter is currently controlling Separatist units, plus the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade, 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, and 19th Artillery Division.